Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) booming resources sector is pushing up the economic growth of an entire region.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its expected economic growth figures for the Oceania region in 2025, from its 3.9 per cent prediction in April to 4.1 per cent last month. According to its Asian Development Outlook report for September 2025, the regional growth is driven almost entirely by increases in production and value across the PNG mining industry,.
“The 2025 upward revision is largely driven by stronger resource-related output in PNG, the subregion’s largest economy,” the report notes. The Oceania subregion consists of PNG and 13 Pacific Island nations including Fiji, Vanuatu, the Marshall Islands, and Pulau.
PNG’s expected economic growth rate for 2025 was revised upward from 4.2 per cent to 4.6 per cent in the September update. The ADB noted mining output was stronger than expected, with mine upgrades at both Newmont’s Lihir and K92’s Kainantu mines taking early effect. The Porgera mine had its highest half-year gold output since reopening in 2023, and Ok Tedi also had “robust” production.
Liquefied natural gas production was strong, in part due to the Angore gas field coming onstream. In fact, PNG’s LNG output for the half represented the highest year-on-year growth since 20220.
PNG’s economy is also proving resilient to the changing world trade environment.
A 10 per cent tarriff on goods exported to the US has had minimal impact, and is one of the lowest US tariffs being faced in the region. This was pushed up to 15 per cent in September, but the ADB is not predicting any major change in PNG’s outlook as a result.
There are some risks to the economy as it moves towards 2026, with the report noting that “severe” development changes, including deteriorating law and order issues, and an imminent “listing” on foreign exchange markets contributing to an expected drop-off in economic growth next year.
The ADB is expecting PNG’s economy to grow by between 3.6 per cent and 3.8 per cent in the 2026 calendar year.
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